FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 11/22/09, 11:00 AM
Today...partly cloudy. High of 55 degrees. Southeast winds at 5-10 MPH.
Tonight...partly cloudy. Low of 39 degrees. East-southeast winds at 5-10 MPH.
Tomorrow...mostly cloudy. High of 54 degrees. East-southeast winds around 5 MPH.
Extended outlook...Tuesday through Saturday...
Tuesday...cloudy with a good chance of showers. Low in the upper 30s. High around 50.
Wednesday...rainy with the possibility of snow later in the evening. Low in the upper 30s. High in the middle 40s.
Thursday (Thanksgiving)...chance of snow showers. Low in the lower 30s. High around 40.
Friday...partly cloudy. Low around 30. High in the lower 40s.
Saturday...partly cloudy. Low in the lower 30s. High in the middle 40s.
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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high, 52 degrees; last night's low, 32 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 41/24. We had no rain at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.
We have had 0.14" inches of rain this month. On average, we should see 2.82" of liquid precipitation by November 30. We have had 42.48" of rain as of this point this year. On average we should have seen 35.22" of annual liquid precipitation by November 30.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: No severe weather is expected through Saturday.
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PRECIPITATION: Tuesday and Wednesday: .5"-.75", and 60% coverage.
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: Not a bad start to the week, with temperatures just above average for this time of the year on Monday. Then Tuesday brings in our weather maker. There is a trough of low pressure in the jet stream, causing a cold front to push into the area, and the system is moving slow. Tuesday through Thursday we will have a chance of precipitation with the chance of seeing snow. As of now, temperatures seem a bit too warm to expect any accumulation.
This morning's surface map shows a cold front just west of Iowa, trailing back through Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. There is a low sitting in central Colorado, but mostly high pressure throughout the Rockies. There is also a decaying system off the coast of Washington, with a cold front crossing through western Oregon.
Our forecast concern is the cold front west of Iowa.
Since the front is nearby, we will go back to mostly cloudy skies Monday. Tuesday is when the system hits. Tuesday we can expect to see rain showers thoughout most of the region. This system is still here Wednesday, and it should begin to fall apart. Because of that we should see lighter rain on Wednesday. As the evening progresses on Wednesday, we have a chance of seeing snow. The system should have fallen apart by Thursday, so we should be seeing some left over precipitation. It is looking like we will be seeing some snow still falling on Thanksgiving, but at this time temperatures appear too warm for accumulation. Friday and Saturday the system is out of our area, and we will go back to partly cloudy skies.
So for those who will be staying home for Thanksgiving, this system gives you a reason to stay inside and enjoy the holiday. For those who will be out and about driving, stay safe on the roads. Finally, for those snow lovers out there, keep an eye open Wednesday night and through Thursday, because you might see some.
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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Forecast, As Promised
Alright, here it is! Just finished it about 20 minutes ago. Enjoy!
FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 11/15/09, 11:00 AM
Today...cloudy. High of 50 degrees. North-northeast winds at 10-15 MPH.
Tonight...cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 37 degrees. East-northeast winds at 10-15 MPH.
Tomorrow...cloudy with a good chance of rain. High of 49 degrees. East-northeast winds at 10-15 MPH, with possible gusts up to 20 MPH.
Extended outlook...Tuesday through Saturday...
Tuesday...cloudy with another good chance of rain. Low in the upper 30s. High around 50.
Wednesday...a good chance of showers. Low around 40. High in the middle to upper 40s.
Thursday...chance of showers. Low in the upper 30s. High in the middle to upper 40s.
Friday...chance of showers. Low in the upper 30s. High in the upper 40s.
Saturday...partly cloudy. Low in the middle 30s. High in the lower 50s.
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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high, 61 degrees; last night's low, 37 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 46/30. We had a trace of rain at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.
We have had 0.01" inches of rain this month. On average, we should see 2.82" of liquid precipitation by November 30. We have had 42.35" of rain as of this point this year. On average we should have seen 35.22" of annual liquid precipitation by November 30.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: No severe weather is expected through Saturday.
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PRECIPITATION:
Tonight: .01"-.10"
Tomorrow: .01"-.10"
Tuesday: .10"-.25" with local amounts up to .50"
Wednesday-Friday: .10"-.30"
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: This forecast could be summed up in just a few words: wet and cool. Right now it appears that the systems are slow movers, so they will take a little bit longer to leave our area. This is going to keep the weather gray and nasty for the next week, with showers sticking around throughout the week. The rain should not be heavy for the most part, but there could be small pockets of heavier rainfall in these systems.
This morning's surface map shows a low in Ontario, just north of Lake Superior. This has a cold front extending back through Indiana all the way into Texas. There is another low in southern Illinois associated with this front. We also have a low sitting back in southern Colorado. There is also a system sitting off the coast of Oregon, which looks unlikely to reach us.
Our forecast concern starts with the southern Illinois low, and then switches to the Colorado low.
For today, we should be okay with the low in southern Illinois, it will just keep things cloudy. Tonight the low should start to kick up some showers, and then our rain event begins. This system should just kick up a few showers, with nothing too bad.
As the southern Illinois low kicks up some precipitation, the Colorado low begins to move eastward. This system ends up with unfortunate timing for us. The southern Illinois low should move out of the area by Monday night, which is the same time the Colorado low moves in. This low is a bit stronger than the southern Illinois low, so we should see some heavier rain. We could see local amounts up to .50".
This system sticks around until Thursday afternoon, and we may get a few leftover showers Friday. Friday into Saturday, the rain clears up for a bit. It should be partly cloudy those two days, and we may even get back up into the 50s on Saturday. This may only be a slight relief, because it looks like another system will kick in early next week.
This next week is just looking nasty. On the positive side, our temperatures should be around average for this time of year. Unfortunately, it will just be rainy, so probably a good idea to keep an umbrella handy this week.
********************************************
Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com
Here are the map links I generally add:
250 mb (This one shows a nice deep trough across the US very nicely)
500 mb
Surface
Now back to a nice thing called homework! With some luck, I should be posting again soon!
FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 11/15/09, 11:00 AM
Today...cloudy. High of 50 degrees. North-northeast winds at 10-15 MPH.
Tonight...cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 37 degrees. East-northeast winds at 10-15 MPH.
Tomorrow...cloudy with a good chance of rain. High of 49 degrees. East-northeast winds at 10-15 MPH, with possible gusts up to 20 MPH.
Extended outlook...Tuesday through Saturday...
Tuesday...cloudy with another good chance of rain. Low in the upper 30s. High around 50.
Wednesday...a good chance of showers. Low around 40. High in the middle to upper 40s.
Thursday...chance of showers. Low in the upper 30s. High in the middle to upper 40s.
Friday...chance of showers. Low in the upper 30s. High in the upper 40s.
Saturday...partly cloudy. Low in the middle 30s. High in the lower 50s.
*********************************************
CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high, 61 degrees; last night's low, 37 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 46/30. We had a trace of rain at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.
We have had 0.01" inches of rain this month. On average, we should see 2.82" of liquid precipitation by November 30. We have had 42.35" of rain as of this point this year. On average we should have seen 35.22" of annual liquid precipitation by November 30.
*********************************************
SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: No severe weather is expected through Saturday.
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PRECIPITATION:
Tonight: .01"-.10"
Tomorrow: .01"-.10"
Tuesday: .10"-.25" with local amounts up to .50"
Wednesday-Friday: .10"-.30"
*********************************************
FORECAST DISCUSSION: This forecast could be summed up in just a few words: wet and cool. Right now it appears that the systems are slow movers, so they will take a little bit longer to leave our area. This is going to keep the weather gray and nasty for the next week, with showers sticking around throughout the week. The rain should not be heavy for the most part, but there could be small pockets of heavier rainfall in these systems.
This morning's surface map shows a low in Ontario, just north of Lake Superior. This has a cold front extending back through Indiana all the way into Texas. There is another low in southern Illinois associated with this front. We also have a low sitting back in southern Colorado. There is also a system sitting off the coast of Oregon, which looks unlikely to reach us.
Our forecast concern starts with the southern Illinois low, and then switches to the Colorado low.
For today, we should be okay with the low in southern Illinois, it will just keep things cloudy. Tonight the low should start to kick up some showers, and then our rain event begins. This system should just kick up a few showers, with nothing too bad.
As the southern Illinois low kicks up some precipitation, the Colorado low begins to move eastward. This system ends up with unfortunate timing for us. The southern Illinois low should move out of the area by Monday night, which is the same time the Colorado low moves in. This low is a bit stronger than the southern Illinois low, so we should see some heavier rain. We could see local amounts up to .50".
This system sticks around until Thursday afternoon, and we may get a few leftover showers Friday. Friday into Saturday, the rain clears up for a bit. It should be partly cloudy those two days, and we may even get back up into the 50s on Saturday. This may only be a slight relief, because it looks like another system will kick in early next week.
This next week is just looking nasty. On the positive side, our temperatures should be around average for this time of year. Unfortunately, it will just be rainy, so probably a good idea to keep an umbrella handy this week.
********************************************
Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com
Here are the map links I generally add:
250 mb (This one shows a nice deep trough across the US very nicely)
500 mb
Surface
Now back to a nice thing called homework! With some luck, I should be posting again soon!
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Forecast Coming Soon
Sorry there hasn't been a post in ages. School keeps me busy, and even though I have been forecasting, I haven't posted them to the blog, since I have to re-format the forecast for the blog. Anyhow, I will be forecasting tomorrow, so look for one to post sometime tomorrow. With any luck, I should be able to describe some of my recent weather related activity soon too! Anyhow, I've got to get back to a big research project for my Applications of Climatology class right now, but I just wanted to throw out the update that a forecast will be coming soon.
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