Sunday, November 22, 2009

November 22 Forecast

FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 11/22/09, 11:00 AM

Today...partly cloudy. High of 55 degrees. Southeast winds at 5-10 MPH.

Tonight...partly cloudy. Low of 39 degrees. East-southeast winds at 5-10 MPH.

Tomorrow...mostly cloudy. High of 54 degrees. East-southeast winds around 5 MPH.

Extended outlook...Tuesday through Saturday...

Tuesday...cloudy with a good chance of showers. Low in the upper 30s. High around 50.

Wednesday...rainy with the possibility of snow later in the evening. Low in the upper 30s. High in the middle 40s.

Thursday (Thanksgiving)...chance of snow showers. Low in the lower 30s. High around 40.

Friday...partly cloudy. Low around 30. High in the lower 40s.

Saturday...partly cloudy. Low in the lower 30s. High in the middle 40s.

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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high, 52 degrees; last night's low, 32 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 41/24. We had no rain at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.

We have had 0.14" inches of rain this month. On average, we should see 2.82" of liquid precipitation by November 30. We have had 42.48" of rain as of this point this year. On average we should have seen 35.22" of annual liquid precipitation by November 30.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: No severe weather is expected through Saturday.
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PRECIPITATION: Tuesday and Wednesday: .5"-.75", and 60% coverage.
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: Not a bad start to the week, with temperatures just above average for this time of the year on Monday. Then Tuesday brings in our weather maker. There is a trough of low pressure in the jet stream, causing a cold front to push into the area, and the system is moving slow. Tuesday through Thursday we will have a chance of precipitation with the chance of seeing snow. As of now, temperatures seem a bit too warm to expect any accumulation.

This morning's surface map shows a cold front just west of Iowa, trailing back through Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. There is a low sitting in central Colorado, but mostly high pressure throughout the Rockies. There is also a decaying system off the coast of Washington, with a cold front crossing through western Oregon.

Our forecast concern is the cold front west of Iowa.

Since the front is nearby, we will go back to mostly cloudy skies Monday. Tuesday is when the system hits. Tuesday we can expect to see rain showers thoughout most of the region. This system is still here Wednesday, and it should begin to fall apart. Because of that we should see lighter rain on Wednesday. As the evening progresses on Wednesday, we have a chance of seeing snow. The system should have fallen apart by Thursday, so we should be seeing some left over precipitation. It is looking like we will be seeing some snow still falling on Thanksgiving, but at this time temperatures appear too warm for accumulation. Friday and Saturday the system is out of our area, and we will go back to partly cloudy skies.

So for those who will be staying home for Thanksgiving, this system gives you a reason to stay inside and enjoy the holiday. For those who will be out and about driving, stay safe on the roads. Finally, for those snow lovers out there, keep an eye open Wednesday night and through Thursday, because you might see some.


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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Forecast, As Promised

Alright, here it is! Just finished it about 20 minutes ago. Enjoy!

FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 11/15/09, 11:00 AM

Today...cloudy. High of 50 degrees. North-northeast winds at 10-15 MPH.

Tonight...cloudy with a chance of rain. Low of 37 degrees. East-northeast winds at 10-15 MPH.

Tomorrow...cloudy with a good chance of rain. High of 49 degrees. East-northeast winds at 10-15 MPH, with possible gusts up to 20 MPH.

Extended outlook...Tuesday through Saturday...

Tuesday...cloudy with another good chance of rain. Low in the upper 30s. High around 50.

Wednesday...a good chance of showers. Low around 40. High in the middle to upper 40s.

Thursday...chance of showers. Low in the upper 30s. High in the middle to upper 40s.

Friday...chance of showers. Low in the upper 30s. High in the upper 40s.

Saturday...partly cloudy. Low in the middle 30s. High in the lower 50s.

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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high, 61 degrees; last night's low, 37 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 46/30. We had a trace of rain at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.

We have had 0.01" inches of rain this month. On average, we should see 2.82" of liquid precipitation by November 30. We have had 42.35" of rain as of this point this year. On average we should have seen 35.22" of annual liquid precipitation by November 30.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: No severe weather is expected through Saturday.
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PRECIPITATION:
Tonight: .01"-.10"
Tomorrow: .01"-.10"
Tuesday: .10"-.25" with local amounts up to .50"
Wednesday-Friday: .10"-.30"
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: This forecast could be summed up in just a few words: wet and cool. Right now it appears that the systems are slow movers, so they will take a little bit longer to leave our area. This is going to keep the weather gray and nasty for the next week, with showers sticking around throughout the week. The rain should not be heavy for the most part, but there could be small pockets of heavier rainfall in these systems.

This morning's surface map shows a low in Ontario, just north of Lake Superior. This has a cold front extending back through Indiana all the way into Texas. There is another low in southern Illinois associated with this front. We also have a low sitting back in southern Colorado. There is also a system sitting off the coast of Oregon, which looks unlikely to reach us.

Our forecast concern starts with the southern Illinois low, and then switches to the Colorado low.

For today, we should be okay with the low in southern Illinois, it will just keep things cloudy. Tonight the low should start to kick up some showers, and then our rain event begins. This system should just kick up a few showers, with nothing too bad.

As the southern Illinois low kicks up some precipitation, the Colorado low begins to move eastward. This system ends up with unfortunate timing for us. The southern Illinois low should move out of the area by Monday night, which is the same time the Colorado low moves in. This low is a bit stronger than the southern Illinois low, so we should see some heavier rain. We could see local amounts up to .50".

This system sticks around until Thursday afternoon, and we may get a few leftover showers Friday. Friday into Saturday, the rain clears up for a bit. It should be partly cloudy those two days, and we may even get back up into the 50s on Saturday. This may only be a slight relief, because it looks like another system will kick in early next week.

This next week is just looking nasty. On the positive side, our temperatures should be around average for this time of year. Unfortunately, it will just be rainy, so probably a good idea to keep an umbrella handy this week.

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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com

Here are the map links I generally add:
250 mb (This one shows a nice deep trough across the US very nicely)
500 mb
Surface

Now back to a nice thing called homework! With some luck, I should be posting again soon!

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Forecast Coming Soon

Sorry there hasn't been a post in ages. School keeps me busy, and even though I have been forecasting, I haven't posted them to the blog, since I have to re-format the forecast for the blog. Anyhow, I will be forecasting tomorrow, so look for one to post sometime tomorrow. With any luck, I should be able to describe some of my recent weather related activity soon too! Anyhow, I've got to get back to a big research project for my Applications of Climatology class right now, but I just wanted to throw out the update that a forecast will be coming soon.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Quickly "Breeze"ing Through Today

It's been a windy one in DeKalb today (September 28, 2009). According to the National Weather Service in Romeoville, IL (the Chicago office), our peak wind gust was 43 mph at 2:45 pm. Some people have wondered why today was so windy. We had a tight pressure gradient behind the cold front that passed through last night. The tight gradient lead to fast wind speeds, keeping our winds sustained at 25-30 mph most of the afternoon. Here is what the map looked like from this afternoon. Source was the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.



So that is the story on our "breezy" day. Winds should be calmer tomorrow as the gradient will be relaxed over the DeKalb area. And with the high pressure moving in, we should see a few days of nicer weather.


Wednesday, September 23, 2009

September 23 Forecast

Sorry it's been a while. Thanks for the patience. Here is your forecast:


FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 9/23/09, 2:30 PM

Rest of Today...mostly cloudy. High of 72 degrees. 5-10 mph breeze out of the north, northeast.

Tonight...remaining mostly cloudy, with possible fog. Low of 59 degrees. Winds persist at 5-10 mph out of the north.

Tomorrow...mostly cloudy, with a possibility of showers. High of 70 degrees. Winds pick up to 10 mph out of the northeast.

Extended Outlook...Friday through Tuesday...

Friday...mostly cloudy, with a possibility of rain. Lows around 50. Highs in the low 70's.

Saturday...mostly cloudy. Good chance for rain, with possible thundestorms. Lows in the lower 50's. Highs in the upper 60's.

Sunday...partly cloudy, with a slight chance of showers. Low in the lower 50's. Highs around 70.

Monday...partly cloudy, with showers still possible. Lows right around 50. Highs in the upper 60's.

Tuesday...partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40's. Highs in the upper 60's.

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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's High 76 degrees; last night's low 60 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 68/44. We had .44" of rain at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.

We have had 1.07" inches of rain this month. On average, we should see 3.47" of liquid precipitation by September 30. We have had 32.41" of rain as of this point this year. On average we should have seen 29.80" of liquid precipitation by September 30.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: Fog is the primary severe weather concern at this time. Areas of fog will appear overnight, so take caution if you are out at night.
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PRECIPITATION: Friday looks like the day where we will see rain. It looks like the area will see about .25"-.50" of rain.
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: Currently, there is a big trough of low pressure in the jet stream. It is sitting right over Kansas and Nebraska, and it will be our main forecast issue through this week.

This morning's surface map shows the cold front that passed over our area last night. The low is over Lake Huron, with the front trailing across Ohio, Indiana, the southern tip of Illinois, and back into mid Arkansas, where another low is sitting. This system continues to trail into the Gulf of Mexico.

The second system is the low placed over Hudson Bay, with a cold front moving south across Ontario. This may find its way down to us later this week. There is also a low centered over Kansas, which will impact us later this week. Finally, there are a few high pressures marked over the Rocky Mountains.

Our first concern is the low over Hudson Bay. This system is making a southerly push, and should be across the northern Illinois region by Thursday morning. This system may clip the edge of the area, and may produce some rain showers Thursday.

Friday our main concern is the low pressure system over Kansas. Friday morning looks like the time when this system will hit. There will still be good cloud coverage, so we will not have enough instability for organized thunderstorms. However, our current dewpoints are fairly high, and with the system hitting, we will have enough moisture and lift to expect rain showers. It looks like this will bring anywhere between .25" and .50" of rain to the area.

This system will be staying around the area Saturday and Sunday, so we can expect to see additional rainfall this weekend. However, this should not be too intense of a rain event. Weekend totals, including Friday, look to be around 1". There is a small chance of thunderstorms this weekend, but nothing severe is expected.

The system should be out of the area by Monday, and we may see increased winds behind the system. On the other hand, a high pressure system will be moving towards our area, so we should be seeing some sunshine Monday and Tuesday.

So for the next few days, be prepared for cloudy skies, possible showers, and highs around the low 70's and upper 60's. Get ready to get some rain this weekend, but remember, sunnier skies are coming early next week.

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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com


I added some additional links for some fun! Now you have a moving surface forecast map, and forecast rain totals! Hope you enjoyed it!

Friday, September 4, 2009

Labor Day Weekend Forecast

Alright here goes nothing! I haven't heard any critique on it yet, so it may still get improvements:

FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 9/4/09, 2:30 PM

Rest of today...Clear skies. High of 79. Calm winds.

Tonight...Still staying clear skies. Low of 53. Winds remain clam.

Tomorrow...Skies remain clear. High of 78. Winds pick up to 5-10 MPH out of the east.

Extended Outlook...Sunday through Thursday...

Sunday...Skies shift to partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. High in the upper 70s

Monday(Labor Day)...Partly cloudy conditions remain. Low in the mid to upper 50s. High in the lower 80s.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy, possibly showers. Low in the upper 50s. High in the upper 70s.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy with a possibility of showers. Low in the upper 50s. High around 80.

Thursday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low in the lower 60s. High in the mid 70s.

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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high 74 degrees; last night's low 54 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 80/56. We had no rain at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.

We have had 0 inches of rain this month. On average, we should see 3.47" of liquid precipitation by September 30. We have had 31.34" of rain as of this point this year. On average, we should have seen 29.80" of liquid precipitation by September 30.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK:Except for patchy fog Friday night into Saturday morning, the weekend should not see severe weather.
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PRECIPITATION: No precipitation this weekend.
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: The pattern aloft seems to stay steady, with a nice, steady ridge. This should continue to give us our high pressure, keeping nice weather throughout the weekend. A relatively deep trough is currently sitting off of the West Coast, which should break through into the forecast area later next week.

On the surface map, there is a cold front associated with the trough on the West Coast. The cold front is currently west of Oregon and Washington. That should initiate some rain for them.

There is also a low in northern Alberta, Canada. This has a cold front that extends into Wyoming, and a stationary front that extends over Minnesota and over Lakes Superior and Huron.

Our forecast issues are events later in the week.

Today, the weekend, and Monday...The ridge aloft will keep the higher pressure in our area leading to fair weather throughout the weekend. As the trough off the West Coast begins to travel eastward, it should intensify our ridge. This will lead to a greater southerly flow, which should increase temperatures and dewpoints in our area.

Tuesday...Models indicate that a system should be pushing through our area. Although the precipitation shows up to the south of here, I went ahead and put in a possibility of showers. I think we should stay dry, but I can't rule out the possibility of light showers.

Wednesday and Thursday... These days look like we are going to get hit with some rain. It looks as if a second system will move on top of our area and rain on us. Wednesday may see remnants of Tuesday's system, and it may see the new system later in the day. Thursday seems to be the day we get hit with the full force of the second system.

So the weekend looks great. Go out and barbeque, or whatever you do for Labor Day. The next few days afterward, you might want to have an umbrella handy, just in case.

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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie@niu.edu

Some changes may come specifically for blog posts, but we'll see how that plays out. I went ahead and threw some links in for you. Enjoy!

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Coming Soon

Wow. Sorry for the very lengthy absense of a post.

So, coming soon:
I was fortunate enough to be selected an internship with NIU Staff Meteorologist, Gilbert Sebenste, this semester. I will have to write forecast discussions for DeKalb and surrounding areas for this internship. I will be adding the discussions I write to the blog, so there will be a slight change in the discussion format. I'll try to add some maps in for the blog posts, like I have been, but it will be a change of pace. I hope you will enjoy the discussions. And as always, if something really cool happens, and I get pictures of it, they will be posted. Thanks for reading, and thanks for your patience.