Chance of "Big" Snow Soon!

I just finished my forecast for NIU a few minutes ago, and it looks like this week might be a fun one! As of now, it appears we may see heavy snow around Tuesday night, into Wednesday. It's kind of funny to think we might see a big snow during finals week, pretty much the last time any college kid wants to see it. Here's the forecast:


FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 12/5/09, 11:00 AM

Today...partly cloudy. High of 32 degrees. South winds at 5-10 MPH.

Tonight...partly cloudy. Low of 17 degrees. South winds at 5-10 MPH.

Tomorrow...mostly cloudy, with a chance of snow later at night. High of 34 degrees.

South winds around 10 MPH.

Extended outlook...Tuesday through Saturday...

Tuesday...chance of snow showers. Low around 20. High in the lower 30s.

Wednesday...snow likely. Low in the middle 20s. High in the upper 20s.

Thursday...chance of snow showers. Low in the middle teens. High around 20.

Friday...chance of snow showers. Low in the middle teens. High in the middle 20s.

Saturday...chance of snow showers. Low in the lower 20s. High in the upper 20s.

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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high, 25 degrees; last night's low, 19 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 38/24. We had no precipitation at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.

We have had 0.01" inches of liquid equivalent this month, and .5" of snow. On average, we should see 2.18" of liquid equivalent, and 9.5" of snow by December 31. We have had 43.11" of liquid equivalent as of this point this year, and .5" of sonw. On average we should have seen 37.40" of annual liquid precipitation by December 31.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: Cold night time lows and highs struggling to get in the 30s combined with wind will lead to cold wind chills.

Forecast models indicate a system may strike our area Tuesday night or Wednesday, which could bring with it some heavy snow. At this time, it is difficult to get a good idea of possible accumulation, but snow totals could exceed 5".
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PRECIPITATION: Sunday night into Monday: chance of light snow showers. With this, about .01-.1" liquid equivalent and snow up to 1", with 60% coverage.

Tuesday into Wednesday: .4"-.75" of liquid equivalent, snow between 4"-7" with 70% coverage.
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: This week we will begin to see those cold December temperatures and snow. Forecast models are predicting a system to strike our region Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could be our first heavy snowfall of the season. At this time, the models are having a little uncertainty in the amounts, but they generally range between .25"-.75" of liquid precipitation, which could mean anywhere between 2.5"-7.5" of snow.

This morning's surface map has very few features on it. We have an area of high pressure over us for now, but that will change in a few days. Across Nebraska, there are a few weak low pressure systems, and there is a low currently in southwestern Wyoming. The low in Wyoming is the one that will cause our trouble later this week.

Today and most of tomorrow we will have fairly nice weather thanks to the high pressure. Tomorrow night and into Monday, one of the lows in Nebraska may kick up a light snow shower across our area, but nothing too bad. If this occurs, snow accumulation may reach 1".

The big concern is Tuesday night through Wednesday, when the Wyoming low hits our area. This one has potential for fairly heavy snowfall. The range could be anywhere from 2.5"-7.5" based on the forecast models. There is some uncertainty about the amount, but at this time, I believe we could see amounts between 4"-6". The best thing to do concerning this system is to continue listening to the forecasts. As the system gets closer, there may be more certainty on snowfall totals.

After the system passes through our area, we may see some light snow showers Thursday through Saturday.

So this week is pretty much shaping up to be a cold and snowy one. Make sure to bundle up when heading out, especially with cold wind chills. Also, keep an eye on the forecasts for that potential big snow. Stay warm and if you head out, drive safe this week.

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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com


And of course, the surface map just updated as I put the link in. So it will be slighty different than the way described in the discussion.