Wow. Sorry for the very lengthy absense of a post.
So, coming soon:
I was fortunate enough to be selected an internship with NIU Staff Meteorologist, Gilbert Sebenste, this semester. I will have to write forecast discussions for DeKalb and surrounding areas for this internship. I will be adding the discussions I write to the blog, so there will be a slight change in the discussion format. I'll try to add some maps in for the blog posts, like I have been, but it will be a change of pace. I hope you will enjoy the discussions. And as always, if something really cool happens, and I get pictures of it, they will be posted. Thanks for reading, and thanks for your patience.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Always When You Don't Have A Camera Handy...
Gah! Caught without my camera on a beautiful storm! Last night (6/10), one of my buddies picks me up to head to Wood River, IL, so that we can play a trivia game at a local Applebee's. This is about 9:00 pm, so our light sources are pretty much city lights and lightning. We go pick up another friend and begin our drive to the restaurant. Right over the river, near the Melvin Price Lock and Dam in Alton, IL, I see a distinctive lowering in the cloud base. I was suspicious, so I call my dad to give a heads up that this storm may try to pop a wall cloud. I later hear that a wall cloud was reported at our location by a trained spotter, just about the same time I called my dad. We were pretty late for trivia (20 minutes late, as time is now 9:20pm), so we decide to take a detour. We go in a loop around Wood River so we can watch the storm. The lightning was just amazing. We had what I call "spider-effect" lightning, which is cloud-to-cloud lightning that spreads out. We also saw a lot of cloud-to-ground. It was great!
Finally, we start heading back towards Wood River, and this time we had no doubt of this lowering. A textbook wall cloud was hanging over the refinery. I know it would have been difficult to get a picture even if I had my camera, but this was a picture perfect wall cloud. I couldn't tell if it was rotating, due to the lack of light. This was right around 9:30 pm. This wall cloud dissapated after after 5-10 minutes. By time we got to the restaurant, it was gone.
The irony to this whole night: I was about to grab my camera as I left, just in case we ran across some interesting storms!
Finally, we start heading back towards Wood River, and this time we had no doubt of this lowering. A textbook wall cloud was hanging over the refinery. I know it would have been difficult to get a picture even if I had my camera, but this was a picture perfect wall cloud. I couldn't tell if it was rotating, due to the lack of light. This was right around 9:30 pm. This wall cloud dissapated after after 5-10 minutes. By time we got to the restaurant, it was gone.
The irony to this whole night: I was about to grab my camera as I left, just in case we ran across some interesting storms!
Monday, May 18, 2009
5/19/09 Wx Discussion
Well this is going to be dissapointing after all the "good" weather we have been having. (By good weather, I mean thunderstorms). Anyhow, it looks like the pattern has settled down for a while(....sigh).
We are currently under a ridge (500 mb) on both locations, which should lead to relatively sunny weather for some time. The current run of the GFS model, which can forecast out about 10 days, shows little action at 500 mb or the surface. There is really no action until we are about 6 days out on the model (in a realm known as "crystal ball realm." The models generally have trouble with accuracy that far out.). The precipitation that does pop up on the model appear to be a linear thunderstorm. However, models, such as the GFS, generally have trouble with thunderstorm (and you probably don't want the technical reasons).
So, overall, it looks like nice weather in both Alton and DeKalb. I guess we have to deliver the message of nice weather too.
Alton:
Tuesday: Sunny. Hi 77, Low 54.
Wednesday: Sunny. Hi 80, Low 58.
DeKalb:
Tuesday: Sunny. Hi 74, Low 53
Wednesday: Sunny. Hi 78, Low 55
We are currently under a ridge (500 mb) on both locations, which should lead to relatively sunny weather for some time. The current run of the GFS model, which can forecast out about 10 days, shows little action at 500 mb or the surface. There is really no action until we are about 6 days out on the model (in a realm known as "crystal ball realm." The models generally have trouble with accuracy that far out.). The precipitation that does pop up on the model appear to be a linear thunderstorm. However, models, such as the GFS, generally have trouble with thunderstorm (and you probably don't want the technical reasons).
So, overall, it looks like nice weather in both Alton and DeKalb. I guess we have to deliver the message of nice weather too.
Alton:
Tuesday: Sunny. Hi 77, Low 54.
Wednesday: Sunny. Hi 80, Low 58.
DeKalb:
Tuesday: Sunny. Hi 74, Low 53
Wednesday: Sunny. Hi 78, Low 55
Saturday, May 9, 2009
An Unintended Chase
May 7, 2009. What a great day! I was moving out of college and going home for the summer. During the drive south, we had to go through a SPC slight risk. We ended up leaving at a great time, and we saw some AMAZING weather! I was driving, so my dad took the following pictures.
This wall cloud was between Lincoln and Springfield, Illinois. We were driving 55 south looking west. This picture also has a very nice rain foot to the side of the wall cloud. A wall cloud is indicative of a strong updraft in the storm. If it is rotating, it is a prime place for tornado development. It doesn't garuntee a tornado. The rain foot shows the precipitation falling and spreading the rain cooled air on impact. It resembles a foot.
As we got south of Springfield, we noticed another wall cloud. We pulled off the side of the road to watch this one for a little while. This one actually was rotating. It was really cool to watch the clouds form right off the tip of the rain foot. Neither of these wall clouds produced a tornado, but they were cool to watch!
This is another view of the Springfield wall cloud. You can see the rain foot wrapping around the backside of the wall cloud in this picture.
Here is a video of the rotating wall cloud. It is a bit difficult to see on the video, but it was rotating very nicely. (We also had a lot more time to watch it, so it was easier to see it rotate.)
Here are some pictures of this impressive storm we were under. These were taken outside of Litchfield, IL looking north:
Later that night, a storm rolled through Alton, IL. There was actually a wind damage report, as one of the older buildings had a roof blown off. (SPC Reports). I was able to see some hail from my house and catch some lightning shots.
I like how you can see the hail falling in this picture. I wasn't even trying to get this picture of hail falling, but I caught it and am quite happy with it.
Just an idea of how much hail fell. Mostly pea-sized, but we had a few that were around 3/8 inch.
I tried to get some lightning, but it is hard to photograph. I did end up with some interesting lightning shots:
Well, that's all for this time. Hope you enjoyed it as much as I did!
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
April Snow Update
After all the panic, no snow fell in DeKalb. Tuesday saw a rather nasty day of mist to light rain conditions. According to the National Weather Service out of Romeoville, Illinois (the Chicago office), there was some pea-sized hail in the region.
Throughout the day Tuesday, I mostly walked in light rain. On my way back from my morning class, I did see some snow-like precipitation, but very little. I saw a few small flakes (probably about 5-10 in total), and a little frozen precip, but for the most part it was rain.
Conditions are currently sunny and warming. Currently it is 59 degrees, and temperatures in the low 80's could be seen Friday and Saturday. I am getting this straight from the National Weather Service today, as I am a little time crunched. However, we will be entering a 500 mb ridge, which should keep our weather nice. I'd better wrap this up, because I still have a lot to do before the end of the week. I'll get another post up as soon as I can.
Throughout the day Tuesday, I mostly walked in light rain. On my way back from my morning class, I did see some snow-like precipitation, but very little. I saw a few small flakes (probably about 5-10 in total), and a little frozen precip, but for the most part it was rain.
Conditions are currently sunny and warming. Currently it is 59 degrees, and temperatures in the low 80's could be seen Friday and Saturday. I am getting this straight from the National Weather Service today, as I am a little time crunched. However, we will be entering a 500 mb ridge, which should keep our weather nice. I'd better wrap this up, because I still have a lot to do before the end of the week. I'll get another post up as soon as I can.
Monday, April 20, 2009
S-S-S-Snow!!!! In Late April?!
This seems to be a fairly popular topic in DeKalb lately. There is a fair chance of seeing some late April snow. This has left some people panicking, however, it seems to really be nothing.
As always, let's get ready to do some map analysis! Current 500 mb maps show an upper level low parked on top of DeKalb. This is sitting in a pretty nice trough. A look at the surface map shows a low pressure located in northern Michigan. Now it is time to look at more features. At 850 mb, We can see a freezing line in central Illinois. This level is around 1250-1500 meters above the surface. If we were to look at another upper air tool, called a sounding, we can look at temperatures in a vertical profile. I am going to use the Davenport, Iowa sounding from 0000Z, which is the evening sounding.
I have added a thick blue horizontal line to indicate the freezing line. The vertical red line indicates temperature with height, and the vertical green line indicates dew point with height. Where they are close, the atmosphere is moist. This is a pretty moist profile, extending up to about 600 mb. So, most of the moisture is above the freezing line in this profile, indicating that if precipitation falls, it will fall frozen. Below the freezing line, it will more than likely melt.
So, what is going to cause the snow? It appears that the low in Michigan will be the problem. Motion around a low is counterclockwise. So, the precipitation forming around a mid-latitude cyclone will follow this motion. Areas north of the warm front are cooler, in this case cool enough for snow. The snow will follow the motion around the low, driving the snow and cool temperatures towards DeKalb.
As for accumulation, I don't think we will see any. Forecast soundings indicate that surface temperatures will not reach freezing. Both the GFS and NAM models are in fair agreeement that the nighttime lows will be around 36 degrees into Tuesday morning. Tuesday highs should be around 46, with Tuesday night/Wednesday morning lows being around 36 again. There is about a 70-80% chance of precipitation. We will also be having northerly , turning into westerly, surface winds around 15-20 miles per hour Tuesday, which will keep the air feeling cooler. With highs expected in the 40's, I would expect to see some rain as well.
To sum it all up, yes we may see snow in DeKalb. However, it will proabably have rain mixing in as the day progresses, and we probably won't have an accumulation. If we do end up with accumulation, it will be minimal, and probably won't last long.
As always, let's get ready to do some map analysis! Current 500 mb maps show an upper level low parked on top of DeKalb. This is sitting in a pretty nice trough. A look at the surface map shows a low pressure located in northern Michigan. Now it is time to look at more features. At 850 mb, We can see a freezing line in central Illinois. This level is around 1250-1500 meters above the surface. If we were to look at another upper air tool, called a sounding, we can look at temperatures in a vertical profile. I am going to use the Davenport, Iowa sounding from 0000Z, which is the evening sounding.
I have added a thick blue horizontal line to indicate the freezing line. The vertical red line indicates temperature with height, and the vertical green line indicates dew point with height. Where they are close, the atmosphere is moist. This is a pretty moist profile, extending up to about 600 mb. So, most of the moisture is above the freezing line in this profile, indicating that if precipitation falls, it will fall frozen. Below the freezing line, it will more than likely melt.So, what is going to cause the snow? It appears that the low in Michigan will be the problem. Motion around a low is counterclockwise. So, the precipitation forming around a mid-latitude cyclone will follow this motion. Areas north of the warm front are cooler, in this case cool enough for snow. The snow will follow the motion around the low, driving the snow and cool temperatures towards DeKalb.
As for accumulation, I don't think we will see any. Forecast soundings indicate that surface temperatures will not reach freezing. Both the GFS and NAM models are in fair agreeement that the nighttime lows will be around 36 degrees into Tuesday morning. Tuesday highs should be around 46, with Tuesday night/Wednesday morning lows being around 36 again. There is about a 70-80% chance of precipitation. We will also be having northerly , turning into westerly, surface winds around 15-20 miles per hour Tuesday, which will keep the air feeling cooler. With highs expected in the 40's, I would expect to see some rain as well.
To sum it all up, yes we may see snow in DeKalb. However, it will proabably have rain mixing in as the day progresses, and we probably won't have an accumulation. If we do end up with accumulation, it will be minimal, and probably won't last long.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Update
I know I have not posted in a while (almost a month). School has really kept me busy these past couple of weeks, and the next two to three weeks look pretty full, especially with the semester ending. It may be a little while more before I can post a forecast. I really want to do another forecast discussion, but time is not on my side right now. With any luck, a time slot may open for a forecast discussion. Thanks for the patience.
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