Quickly "Breeze"ing Through Today

It's been a windy one in DeKalb today (September 28, 2009). According to the National Weather Service in Romeoville, IL (the Chicago office), our peak wind gust was 43 mph at 2:45 pm. Some people have wondered why today was so windy. We had a tight pressure gradient behind the cold front that passed through last night. The tight gradient lead to fast wind speeds, keeping our winds sustained at 25-30 mph most of the afternoon. Here is what the map looked like from this afternoon. Source was the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

So that is the story on our "breezy" day. Winds should be calmer tomorrow as the gradient will be relaxed over the DeKalb area. And with the high pressure moving in, we should see a few days of nicer weather.

September 23 Forecast

Sorry it's been a while. Thanks for the patience. Here is your forecast:


FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 9/23/09, 2:30 PM

Rest of Today...mostly cloudy. High of 72 degrees. 5-10 mph breeze out of the north, northeast.

Tonight...remaining mostly cloudy, with possible fog. Low of 59 degrees. Winds persist at 5-10 mph out of the north.

Tomorrow...mostly cloudy, with a possibility of showers. High of 70 degrees. Winds pick up to 10 mph out of the northeast.

Extended Outlook...Friday through Tuesday...

Friday...mostly cloudy, with a possibility of rain. Lows around 50. Highs in the low 70's.

Saturday...mostly cloudy. Good chance for rain, with possible thundestorms. Lows in the lower 50's. Highs in the upper 60's.

Sunday...partly cloudy, with a slight chance of showers. Low in the lower 50's. Highs around 70.

Monday...partly cloudy, with showers still possible. Lows right around 50. Highs in the upper 60's.

Tuesday...partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40's. Highs in the upper 60's.

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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's High 76 degrees; last night's low 60 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 68/44. We had .44" of rain at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.

We have had 1.07" inches of rain this month. On average, we should see 3.47" of liquid precipitation by September 30. We have had 32.41" of rain as of this point this year. On average we should have seen 29.80" of liquid precipitation by September 30.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: Fog is the primary severe weather concern at this time. Areas of fog will appear overnight, so take caution if you are out at night.
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PRECIPITATION: Friday looks like the day where we will see rain. It looks like the area will see about .25"-.50" of rain.
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: Currently, there is a big trough of low pressure in the jet stream. It is sitting right over Kansas and Nebraska, and it will be our main forecast issue through this week.

This morning's surface map shows the cold front that passed over our area last night. The low is over Lake Huron, with the front trailing across Ohio, Indiana, the southern tip of Illinois, and back into mid Arkansas, where another low is sitting. This system continues to trail into the Gulf of Mexico.

The second system is the low placed over Hudson Bay, with a cold front moving south across Ontario. This may find its way down to us later this week. There is also a low centered over Kansas, which will impact us later this week. Finally, there are a few high pressures marked over the Rocky Mountains.

Our first concern is the low over Hudson Bay. This system is making a southerly push, and should be across the northern Illinois region by Thursday morning. This system may clip the edge of the area, and may produce some rain showers Thursday.

Friday our main concern is the low pressure system over Kansas. Friday morning looks like the time when this system will hit. There will still be good cloud coverage, so we will not have enough instability for organized thunderstorms. However, our current dewpoints are fairly high, and with the system hitting, we will have enough moisture and lift to expect rain showers. It looks like this will bring anywhere between .25" and .50" of rain to the area.

This system will be staying around the area Saturday and Sunday, so we can expect to see additional rainfall this weekend. However, this should not be too intense of a rain event. Weekend totals, including Friday, look to be around 1". There is a small chance of thunderstorms this weekend, but nothing severe is expected.

The system should be out of the area by Monday, and we may see increased winds behind the system. On the other hand, a high pressure system will be moving towards our area, so we should be seeing some sunshine Monday and Tuesday.

So for the next few days, be prepared for cloudy skies, possible showers, and highs around the low 70's and upper 60's. Get ready to get some rain this weekend, but remember, sunnier skies are coming early next week.

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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com


I added some additional links for some fun! Now you have a moving surface forecast map, and forecast rain totals! Hope you enjoyed it!

Labor Day Weekend Forecast

Alright here goes nothing! I haven't heard any critique on it yet, so it may still get improvements:

FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 9/4/09, 2:30 PM

Rest of today...Clear skies. High of 79. Calm winds.

Tonight...Still staying clear skies. Low of 53. Winds remain clam.

Tomorrow...Skies remain clear. High of 78. Winds pick up to 5-10 MPH out of the east.

Extended Outlook...Sunday through Thursday...

Sunday...Skies shift to partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. High in the upper 70s

Monday(Labor Day)...Partly cloudy conditions remain. Low in the mid to upper 50s. High in the lower 80s.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy, possibly showers. Low in the upper 50s. High in the upper 70s.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy with a possibility of showers. Low in the upper 50s. High around 80.

Thursday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low in the lower 60s. High in the mid 70s.

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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high 74 degrees; last night's low 54 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 80/56. We had no rain at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.

We have had 0 inches of rain this month. On average, we should see 3.47" of liquid precipitation by September 30. We have had 31.34" of rain as of this point this year. On average, we should have seen 29.80" of liquid precipitation by September 30.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK:Except for patchy fog Friday night into Saturday morning, the weekend should not see severe weather.
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PRECIPITATION: No precipitation this weekend.
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: The pattern aloft seems to stay steady, with a nice, steady ridge. This should continue to give us our high pressure, keeping nice weather throughout the weekend. A relatively deep trough is currently sitting off of the West Coast, which should break through into the forecast area later next week.

On the surface map, there is a cold front associated with the trough on the West Coast. The cold front is currently west of Oregon and Washington. That should initiate some rain for them.

There is also a low in northern Alberta, Canada. This has a cold front that extends into Wyoming, and a stationary front that extends over Minnesota and over Lakes Superior and Huron.

Our forecast issues are events later in the week.

Today, the weekend, and Monday...The ridge aloft will keep the higher pressure in our area leading to fair weather throughout the weekend. As the trough off the West Coast begins to travel eastward, it should intensify our ridge. This will lead to a greater southerly flow, which should increase temperatures and dewpoints in our area.

Tuesday...Models indicate that a system should be pushing through our area. Although the precipitation shows up to the south of here, I went ahead and put in a possibility of showers. I think we should stay dry, but I can't rule out the possibility of light showers.

Wednesday and Thursday... These days look like we are going to get hit with some rain. It looks as if a second system will move on top of our area and rain on us. Wednesday may see remnants of Tuesday's system, and it may see the new system later in the day. Thursday seems to be the day we get hit with the full force of the second system.

So the weekend looks great. Go out and barbeque, or whatever you do for Labor Day. The next few days afterward, you might want to have an umbrella handy, just in case.

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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie@niu.edu

Some changes may come specifically for blog posts, but we'll see how that plays out. I went ahead and threw some links in for you. Enjoy!

Coming Soon

Wow. Sorry for the very lengthy absense of a post.

So, coming soon:
I was fortunate enough to be selected an internship with NIU Staff Meteorologist, Gilbert Sebenste, this semester. I will have to write forecast discussions for DeKalb and surrounding areas for this internship. I will be adding the discussions I write to the blog, so there will be a slight change in the discussion format. I'll try to add some maps in for the blog posts, like I have been, but it will be a change of pace. I hope you will enjoy the discussions. And as always, if something really cool happens, and I get pictures of it, they will be posted. Thanks for reading, and thanks for your patience.

Always When You Don't Have A Camera Handy...

Gah! Caught without my camera on a beautiful storm! Last night (6/10), one of my buddies picks me up to head to Wood River, IL, so that we can play a trivia game at a local Applebee's. This is about 9:00 pm, so our light sources are pretty much city lights and lightning. We go pick up another friend and begin our drive to the restaurant. Right over the river, near the Melvin Price Lock and Dam in Alton, IL, I see a distinctive lowering in the cloud base. I was suspicious, so I call my dad to give a heads up that this storm may try to pop a wall cloud. I later hear that a wall cloud was reported at our location by a trained spotter, just about the same time I called my dad. We were pretty late for trivia (20 minutes late, as time is now 9:20pm), so we decide to take a detour. We go in a loop around Wood River so we can watch the storm. The lightning was just amazing. We had what I call "spider-effect" lightning, which is cloud-to-cloud lightning that spreads out. We also saw a lot of cloud-to-ground. It was great!

Finally, we start heading back towards Wood River, and this time we had no doubt of this lowering. A textbook wall cloud was hanging over the refinery. I know it would have been difficult to get a picture even if I had my camera, but this was a picture perfect wall cloud. I couldn't tell if it was rotating, due to the lack of light. This was right around 9:30 pm. This wall cloud dissapated after after 5-10 minutes. By time we got to the restaurant, it was gone.

The irony to this whole night: I was about to grab my camera as I left, just in case we ran across some interesting storms!

5/19/09 Wx Discussion

Well this is going to be dissapointing after all the "good" weather we have been having. (By good weather, I mean thunderstorms). Anyhow, it looks like the pattern has settled down for a while(....sigh).



We are currently under a ridge (500 mb) on both locations, which should lead to relatively sunny weather for some time. The current run of the GFS model, which can forecast out about 10 days, shows little action at 500 mb or the surface. There is really no action until we are about 6 days out on the model (in a realm known as "crystal ball realm." The models generally have trouble with accuracy that far out.). The precipitation that does pop up on the model appear to be a linear thunderstorm. However, models, such as the GFS, generally have trouble with thunderstorm (and you probably don't want the technical reasons).



So, overall, it looks like nice weather in both Alton and DeKalb. I guess we have to deliver the message of nice weather too.



Alton:

Tuesday: Sunny. Hi 77, Low 54.

Wednesday: Sunny. Hi 80, Low 58.



DeKalb:

Tuesday: Sunny. Hi 74, Low 53

Wednesday: Sunny. Hi 78, Low 55

An Unintended Chase

May 7, 2009. What a great day! I was moving out of college and going home for the summer. During the drive south, we had to go through a SPC slight risk. We ended up leaving at a great time, and we saw some AMAZING weather! I was driving, so my dad took the following pictures.

This wall cloud was between Lincoln and Springfield, Illinois. We were driving 55 south looking west. This picture also has a very nice rain foot to the side of the wall cloud. A wall cloud is indicative of a strong updraft in the storm. If it is rotating, it is a prime place for tornado development. It doesn't garuntee a tornado. The rain foot shows the precipitation falling and spreading the rain cooled air on impact. It resembles a foot.

As we got south of Springfield, we noticed another wall cloud. We pulled off the side of the road to watch this one for a little while. This one actually was rotating. It was really cool to watch the clouds form right off the tip of the rain foot. Neither of these wall clouds produced a tornado, but they were cool to watch!

This is another view of the Springfield wall cloud. You can see the rain foot wrapping around the backside of the wall cloud in this picture.

Here is a video of the rotating wall cloud. It is a bit difficult to see on the video, but it was rotating very nicely. (We also had a lot more time to watch it, so it was easier to see it rotate.)

Here are some pictures of this impressive storm we were under. These were taken outside of Litchfield, IL looking north:

Later that night, a storm rolled through Alton, IL. There was actually a wind damage report, as one of the older buildings had a roof blown off. (SPC Reports). I was able to see some hail from my house and catch some lightning shots.

I like how you can see the hail falling in this picture. I wasn't even trying to get this picture of hail falling, but I caught it and am quite happy with it.

Just an idea of how much hail fell. Mostly pea-sized, but we had a few that were around 3/8 inch.

I tried to get some lightning, but it is hard to photograph. I did end up with some interesting lightning shots:

Well, that's all for this time. Hope you enjoyed it as much as I did!