First Winter Storm of the Season?

This one is really shaping up nice, should be interesting. What is really neat, is the Quad Cities NWS office was going with a chance of a blizzard 5 days out. Depending on the wind speeds that might just verify...


FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 12/6/09, 11:00 AM

Today...mostly cloudy. High of 34 degrees. South winds at 5-10 MPH.

Tonight...chance of light snow. Low of 26 degrees. South winds around 5 MPH.

Tomorrow...chance of snow. High of 33 degrees. North winds at 5-10 MPH.

Extended outlook...Tuesday through Saturday...

Tuesday...chance of snow showers, with chance increasing Tuesday night. Low in the middle 20s. High in the lower 30s.

Wednesday...snow likely, with increased wind. Low in the middle to upper 20s. High in the upper 20s.

Thursday...partly cloudy. Low in the lower teens. High around 20.

Friday...partly cloudy. Low in the middle teens. High in the middle 20s.

Saturday...chance of snow showers. Low in the middle to upper teens. High in the middle 20s.

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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high, 33 degrees; last night's low, 20 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 37/22. We had no precipitation at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.

We have had 0.01" inches of liquid equivalent this month, and .5" of snow. On average, we should see 2.18" of liquid equivalent, and 9.5" of snow by December 31. We have had 43.11" of liquid equivalent as of this point this year, and .5" of snow. On average we should have seen 37.40" of annual liquid precipitation by December 31.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: Everything is beginning to indicate a winter storm Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast models track the storm over our area, and they are also showing increased wind speed.
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PRECIPITATION: Tonight into Monday: chance of light snow showers. With this, about .01-.1" liquid equivalent and snow up to 1", with 40% coverage.

Tuesday into Wednesday: .5"-1" of liquid equivalent, snow between 4"-8" with 80% coverage.
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: Everything is starting to point towards trouble come midweek. Forecast models continue to track a strengthening low over our area Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing with it some heavy snow. On top of this problem, winds speeds are forecasted to increase, to at least 20 MPH on Wednesday, causing blowing snow.

This morning's surface map has a low in Wisconsin, with a cold front tracking back across Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas. There is also a low in the panhandle of Oklahoma, with a cold front across Texas and New Mexico. Then there is our concern later this week, a low in central Colorado.

The cold front in Iowa, should pass through our area later today, and with it, we may see some light snow showers. The chance of snow comes mostly tonight and tomorrow before noon. Total accumulation with this system could be around 1".

After the snow stops tomorrow, we have a small break before we see snow again. The Colorado low should be entering our region Tuesday afternoon, with a chance of snow. Tuesday night, the chance of snow increases as the system will be much closer, and that chance stays high throughout Wednesday. We'll be looking at heavy snowfall, with possible amounts around 4"-8". We also will be having increased wind speeds, causing drifting snow. If the low tracks closer to us, we may see some mixed precipitation, including sleet and freezing rain. This is going to be a nasty system.

After the system moves out, the temperatures will drop again. Thursday and Friday should have partly cloudy skies, but highs only in the lower to middle 20s and lows in the lower to middle teens. Since the big system will have just passed, it should still be windy, so the wind chills will be even colder.

Saturday and Sunday are about the same as Thursday and Friday. There is a small chance of seeing a snow shower on Saturday, but it would not be a big one if it does snow. Sunday we actually begin to warm up again, with highs in the upper 20s.

At this point in time, the best thing to do would be stay posted to the weather. As that storm approaches, there may be changes in snowfall totals and in wind speeds. The system midweek is looking really nasty, so definitely keep an eye on it. Other than that system, prepare for a few light snow showers and cold temperatures and wind chills. After these systems, the roads may get a little nasty, so drive safely, and keep warm.

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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com

It should be interesting to see how this one pans out. Looks like a winter storm for sure, but will it hit blizzard criteria? (35 MPH winds or greater, storm sustained for 3 hours, and less than a 1/4 mile visibility) Time will tell, so keep an eye on this one.

Chance of "Big" Snow Soon!

I just finished my forecast for NIU a few minutes ago, and it looks like this week might be a fun one! As of now, it appears we may see heavy snow around Tuesday night, into Wednesday. It's kind of funny to think we might see a big snow during finals week, pretty much the last time any college kid wants to see it. Here's the forecast:


FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 12/5/09, 11:00 AM

Today...partly cloudy. High of 32 degrees. South winds at 5-10 MPH.

Tonight...partly cloudy. Low of 17 degrees. South winds at 5-10 MPH.

Tomorrow...mostly cloudy, with a chance of snow later at night. High of 34 degrees.

South winds around 10 MPH.

Extended outlook...Tuesday through Saturday...

Tuesday...chance of snow showers. Low around 20. High in the lower 30s.

Wednesday...snow likely. Low in the middle 20s. High in the upper 20s.

Thursday...chance of snow showers. Low in the middle teens. High around 20.

Friday...chance of snow showers. Low in the middle teens. High in the middle 20s.

Saturday...chance of snow showers. Low in the lower 20s. High in the upper 20s.

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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high, 25 degrees; last night's low, 19 degrees. The average high/low temperature is 38/24. We had no precipitation at the DeKalb campus over the last 24 hours as of 7 AM this morning.

We have had 0.01" inches of liquid equivalent this month, and .5" of snow. On average, we should see 2.18" of liquid equivalent, and 9.5" of snow by December 31. We have had 43.11" of liquid equivalent as of this point this year, and .5" of sonw. On average we should have seen 37.40" of annual liquid precipitation by December 31.
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SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: Cold night time lows and highs struggling to get in the 30s combined with wind will lead to cold wind chills.

Forecast models indicate a system may strike our area Tuesday night or Wednesday, which could bring with it some heavy snow. At this time, it is difficult to get a good idea of possible accumulation, but snow totals could exceed 5".
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PRECIPITATION: Sunday night into Monday: chance of light snow showers. With this, about .01-.1" liquid equivalent and snow up to 1", with 60% coverage.

Tuesday into Wednesday: .4"-.75" of liquid equivalent, snow between 4"-7" with 70% coverage.
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FORECAST DISCUSSION: This week we will begin to see those cold December temperatures and snow. Forecast models are predicting a system to strike our region Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could be our first heavy snowfall of the season. At this time, the models are having a little uncertainty in the amounts, but they generally range between .25"-.75" of liquid precipitation, which could mean anywhere between 2.5"-7.5" of snow.

This morning's surface map has very few features on it. We have an area of high pressure over us for now, but that will change in a few days. Across Nebraska, there are a few weak low pressure systems, and there is a low currently in southwestern Wyoming. The low in Wyoming is the one that will cause our trouble later this week.

Today and most of tomorrow we will have fairly nice weather thanks to the high pressure. Tomorrow night and into Monday, one of the lows in Nebraska may kick up a light snow shower across our area, but nothing too bad. If this occurs, snow accumulation may reach 1".

The big concern is Tuesday night through Wednesday, when the Wyoming low hits our area. This one has potential for fairly heavy snowfall. The range could be anywhere from 2.5"-7.5" based on the forecast models. There is some uncertainty about the amount, but at this time, I believe we could see amounts between 4"-6". The best thing to do concerning this system is to continue listening to the forecasts. As the system gets closer, there may be more certainty on snowfall totals.

After the system passes through our area, we may see some light snow showers Thursday through Saturday.

So this week is pretty much shaping up to be a cold and snowy one. Make sure to bundle up when heading out, especially with cold wind chills. Also, keep an eye on the forecasts for that potential big snow. Stay warm and if you head out, drive safe this week.

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Chuck Richie II
Northern Illinois University undergraduate meteorology student
e-mail: crichie2@gmail.com


And of course, the surface map just updated as I put the link in. So it will be slighty different than the way described in the discussion.

First "Real" Snow for DeKalb

Alright, finals week is coming up, so everyone is up late doing whatever needs to get done, that's the reason for this somewhat late post. After getting .2 inches of snow on Thanksgiving in DeKalb (which supposedly disappeared quickly), and flurries with flakes occasionally hitting the ground December 3, it was about time for DeKalb to get a good snow. A "real" snow event, with some accumulation. Well, as the day got later on the 3rd, and in the morning of the 4th, it started snowing in DeKalb. About 1:30 a.m., I decided to head outside real quick to catch a quick video of this event.

While I was out there, I decided to get a picture of myself out in the snow. I wish I could have taken the picture while there was snow covering the front of my shirt, but that was not to be. Oh, well, there is finally a decent snow in DeKalb! Keep checking in, a forecast will be coming this weekend!