A few posts ago, I was talking about how weird this particular November has been. Well, just about a week after that post, November decided to keep up the craziness. When I think of the month of November, I'm thinking overcast skies, drizzle, and colder temperatures. This past week in the state of Illinois, that normal expectation has been thrown out the door. Illinois has had thunderstorms, tornadoes, flooding, and freezing rain all in a short time span.
If you are anything like me, the first word on that list that jumped out was "tornadoes." This was especially true for those of you in northern Illinois. I was stunned when I heard about a November tornado, but the National Weather Service in Romeoville, IL has a great article on the event, as well as a nice picture of the tornado. They also provide a nice recap of the event, so I'll pass those on for you to read. The following hyperlinks will take you to those stories:
The first article (with the picture of the tornado)
Updated version (no tornado picture, sadly)
Confirmation story (with damage photos and storm reports)
Late season tornado climatology (interesting read)
SPC Storm Reports
Now for the rest of the November mayhem. While all of that fun was occurring up north, the weather had other plans for the greater St. Louis area. There were some tornado warnings issued with a long line of thunderstorms, but no tornadoes were reported in southern Illinois (there were a few in central Missouri.) The Wednesday before Thanksgiving was a wet day, as rain fell almost all day. This rain continued into Thanksgiving day, where it later switched into a nice wintry mix of snow and sleet. Here is a link to the rain totals as collected by the St. Louis, MO National Weather Service.
In short, it has been a highly eventful November. I hope you all enjoyed these stories, and I hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
Football Forecast
Here we go with a "floater forecast." This is one of the forecasts not for Alton or DeKalb, but rather somewhere else in the nation. This forecast is for Muncie, IN, where the Northern Illinois University Huskies will take on the Ball State Cardinals in football on Saturday!
First off, how about those Huskies?! NIU is 8-2 overall this season, with a perfect 6-0 record in conference (MAC) play. Only 5 other teams in the nation are undefeated in their respective conferences. NIU is also ranked 29th in the nation in both the Coaches and AP polls! They will be facing the Ball State Cardinals (4-7, 3-4 in conference (MAC)) in Muncie, IN at 11:00 AM (CST). The Huskies only need to win 1 of their last 2 games to become MAC West Champions. Since the sports stats are done, let's look at what the weather may be for this game.
Across the Midwest, the jet stream is in a ridge pattern. This should bring warmer than average temperatures as well as nice weather. Just north of this ridge, in eastern Manitoba/western Ontario, there is a small shortwave in the jet stream. This shortwave is just behind a surface low.
Speaking of the surface, the surface map is a bit active. There is a low in Ontario, with a cold front extending through Wisconsin, Iowa, northwestern Missouri, and Kansas. West of the Rocky Mountains, there are many different surface lows, in the states Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, California, and Wyoming.
The primary concern is the low in Ontario. The cold front associated with this system will move towards the southeast. At this time, it is looking like the cold front will be near Muncie, IN around 1:00 PM (EST). Since the game starts at Noon EST, this front should hit during the game. It is associated with a occluding (weakening) system, and since this system does not have a strong pressure gradient, it should not affect wind speeds too much. Additionally, the lack of moisture in the area will eliminate the possibility for rain.
Examination of both surface data and Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance, shows that temperatures should be a bit chilly, but good football weather, with the high expected to be around 53 degrees. Temperatures should be in the upper 40s/lower 50s around kickoff, and warm up throughout the game.
10/20/10 Muncie, IN Forecast:
Overnight Low: 36
Daytime High: 53
Kickoff Temperature: 49
Winds: 5-10 MPH out of the South
Conditions: Partly Cloudy
And it wouldn't be a football forecast without a score prediction. I admit to being bias towards NIU, since I spent a great 4 years of my life there, but I will try to keep bias out of the prediction. So, here's my prediction:
NIU 42
BSU 17
Let's see how both the forecast and prediction turn out. I'll leave you with this: GO HUSKIES!
First off, how about those Huskies?! NIU is 8-2 overall this season, with a perfect 6-0 record in conference (MAC) play. Only 5 other teams in the nation are undefeated in their respective conferences. NIU is also ranked 29th in the nation in both the Coaches and AP polls! They will be facing the Ball State Cardinals (4-7, 3-4 in conference (MAC)) in Muncie, IN at 11:00 AM (CST). The Huskies only need to win 1 of their last 2 games to become MAC West Champions. Since the sports stats are done, let's look at what the weather may be for this game.
Across the Midwest, the jet stream is in a ridge pattern. This should bring warmer than average temperatures as well as nice weather. Just north of this ridge, in eastern Manitoba/western Ontario, there is a small shortwave in the jet stream. This shortwave is just behind a surface low.
Speaking of the surface, the surface map is a bit active. There is a low in Ontario, with a cold front extending through Wisconsin, Iowa, northwestern Missouri, and Kansas. West of the Rocky Mountains, there are many different surface lows, in the states Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, California, and Wyoming.
The primary concern is the low in Ontario. The cold front associated with this system will move towards the southeast. At this time, it is looking like the cold front will be near Muncie, IN around 1:00 PM (EST). Since the game starts at Noon EST, this front should hit during the game. It is associated with a occluding (weakening) system, and since this system does not have a strong pressure gradient, it should not affect wind speeds too much. Additionally, the lack of moisture in the area will eliminate the possibility for rain.
Examination of both surface data and Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance, shows that temperatures should be a bit chilly, but good football weather, with the high expected to be around 53 degrees. Temperatures should be in the upper 40s/lower 50s around kickoff, and warm up throughout the game.
10/20/10 Muncie, IN Forecast:
Overnight Low: 36
Daytime High: 53
Kickoff Temperature: 49
Winds: 5-10 MPH out of the South
Conditions: Partly Cloudy
And it wouldn't be a football forecast without a score prediction. I admit to being bias towards NIU, since I spent a great 4 years of my life there, but I will try to keep bias out of the prediction. So, here's my prediction:
NIU 42
BSU 17
Let's see how both the forecast and prediction turn out. I'll leave you with this: GO HUSKIES!
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Alton, IL 10/18/2010 Forecast
Simply put, this has been a weird November. There is a quote for Midwest weather patterns which has been true for this month. "If you don't like the weather, wait 15 minutes, and it will be different." Okay, maybe not 15 minutes, but the weather changes over one week has been incredible. Last week, we were experiencing temperatures in the upper 60s and into the 70s in Alton. The weather was nice enough, that one could have worn shorts if they so desired. This week, the weather has people grabbing jackets before heading out the door. That being said, let's take a look at this weather!
Let's start by taking a look at the surface map. Remember, this link will provide the current surface map, so it may be different than the map at time of this discussion. There are 3 low pressure systems spread across the country right now. The first low is in Canada, just north of New York state and Vermont. The next low is the one impacting Illinois. This low is in northeastern Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri. This low will be discussed in greater depth for this discussion. The last low is sitting out in the Pacific Ocean, northwest of Oregon, and it may cause forecast issues this weekend into early next week.
The main forecast concern for Alton is the low in northeastern Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri. This low is occluding, which means the system is weakening. This low has a warm front extending into portions of southern Illinois. Being north of the warm front puts us in prime position to see some precipitation. The radar from the National Weather Service in St. Louis, MO shows a "precipitation shield" heading towards the greater St. Louis area. This is mostly light rain, and should impact the area during the early morning hours of the 18th. This is mostly light rain, although lowering temperatures overnight may cause the occasional snowflake, but no accumulation is expected.
Upper air analysis shows the area is under a trough, but forecast models project that the area will be out of the trough midday tomorrow. Then a ridge will dominate the weather pattern for the next few days, bringing warmer temperatures along with dry conditions.
Overall, not too many major weather shifts should be expected over the next few days. Basically there should be some rain overnight on the 17th into the early hours of the 18th, and then rain is out of the forecast until the weekend. In that time span, temperatures should warm up a bit, but nothing as warm as last week. It looks like fall is going to try to stick around the area for a little bit.
10/18/2010 Alton, IL Forecast:
High: 47
Overnight Low: 36
Rain Amount: Less than .10"
Conditions: Mostly cloudy, with clouds decreasing during the day
10/19/2010 Alton, IL Forecast:
High: 57
Overnight Low: 33
Rain Amount: 0"
Conditions: Clear skies
I would like to add a quick note. I have been encountering some technical issues recently, or else I would have posted sooner.
Let's start by taking a look at the surface map. Remember, this link will provide the current surface map, so it may be different than the map at time of this discussion. There are 3 low pressure systems spread across the country right now. The first low is in Canada, just north of New York state and Vermont. The next low is the one impacting Illinois. This low is in northeastern Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri. This low will be discussed in greater depth for this discussion. The last low is sitting out in the Pacific Ocean, northwest of Oregon, and it may cause forecast issues this weekend into early next week.
The main forecast concern for Alton is the low in northeastern Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri. This low is occluding, which means the system is weakening. This low has a warm front extending into portions of southern Illinois. Being north of the warm front puts us in prime position to see some precipitation. The radar from the National Weather Service in St. Louis, MO shows a "precipitation shield" heading towards the greater St. Louis area. This is mostly light rain, and should impact the area during the early morning hours of the 18th. This is mostly light rain, although lowering temperatures overnight may cause the occasional snowflake, but no accumulation is expected.
Upper air analysis shows the area is under a trough, but forecast models project that the area will be out of the trough midday tomorrow. Then a ridge will dominate the weather pattern for the next few days, bringing warmer temperatures along with dry conditions.
Overall, not too many major weather shifts should be expected over the next few days. Basically there should be some rain overnight on the 17th into the early hours of the 18th, and then rain is out of the forecast until the weekend. In that time span, temperatures should warm up a bit, but nothing as warm as last week. It looks like fall is going to try to stick around the area for a little bit.
10/18/2010 Alton, IL Forecast:
High: 47
Overnight Low: 36
Rain Amount: Less than .10"
Conditions: Mostly cloudy, with clouds decreasing during the day
10/19/2010 Alton, IL Forecast:
High: 57
Overnight Low: 33
Rain Amount: 0"
Conditions: Clear skies
I would like to add a quick note. I have been encountering some technical issues recently, or else I would have posted sooner.
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