Here we go with a "floater forecast." This is one of the forecasts not for Alton or DeKalb, but rather somewhere else in the nation. This forecast is for Muncie, IN, where the Northern Illinois University Huskies will take on the Ball State Cardinals in football on Saturday!
First off, how about those Huskies?! NIU is 8-2 overall this season, with a perfect 6-0 record in conference (MAC) play. Only 5 other teams in the nation are undefeated in their respective conferences. NIU is also ranked 29th in the nation in both the Coaches and AP polls! They will be facing the Ball State Cardinals (4-7, 3-4 in conference (MAC)) in Muncie, IN at 11:00 AM (CST). The Huskies only need to win 1 of their last 2 games to become MAC West Champions. Since the sports stats are done, let's look at what the weather may be for this game.
Across the Midwest, the jet stream is in a ridge pattern. This should bring warmer than average temperatures as well as nice weather. Just north of this ridge, in eastern Manitoba/western Ontario, there is a small shortwave in the jet stream. This shortwave is just behind a surface low.
Speaking of the surface, the surface map is a bit active. There is a low in Ontario, with a cold front extending through Wisconsin, Iowa, northwestern Missouri, and Kansas. West of the Rocky Mountains, there are many different surface lows, in the states Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, California, and Wyoming.
The primary concern is the low in Ontario. The cold front associated with this system will move towards the southeast. At this time, it is looking like the cold front will be near Muncie, IN around 1:00 PM (EST). Since the game starts at Noon EST, this front should hit during the game. It is associated with a occluding (weakening) system, and since this system does not have a strong pressure gradient, it should not affect wind speeds too much. Additionally, the lack of moisture in the area will eliminate the possibility for rain.
Examination of both surface data and Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance, shows that temperatures should be a bit chilly, but good football weather, with the high expected to be around 53 degrees. Temperatures should be in the upper 40s/lower 50s around kickoff, and warm up throughout the game.
10/20/10 Muncie, IN Forecast:
Overnight Low: 36
Daytime High: 53
Kickoff Temperature: 49
Winds: 5-10 MPH out of the South
Conditions: Partly Cloudy
And it wouldn't be a football forecast without a score prediction. I admit to being bias towards NIU, since I spent a great 4 years of my life there, but I will try to keep bias out of the prediction. So, here's my prediction:
NIU 42
BSU 17
Let's see how both the forecast and prediction turn out. I'll leave you with this: GO HUSKIES!
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Forecast Halftime Report:
ReplyDeleteAt the half, a few things can be reported. Weather from the airport in Muncie, IN:
Overnight Low: 35
Kickoff Temperature: 41
Conditions: Overcast with Fog and Mist
Clouds, yet again interfering with a forecast...
The cold front is still in northern Indiana, so it is moving slower than expected.
As for the game, I may have another bust on my hand. At the half, NIU leads BSU 35-7.
Well, this was a completly busted forecast...
ReplyDeleteHigh: 43
The weather never cleared up. It stayed overcast and gloomy according to the observations taken at the airport. The clouds kept the daytime high down. On the bright side, at least I got the wind right.
As for football, the final score was:
NIU 59
BSU 21
Picked the winner, but not the score.
Go Huskies! I was at the game enjoying the blowout. Maybe you should stick to sports? :)
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