Precip On The Way

OK, so the first run is a late-night forecast. I am not intending to go too in depth this time, more or less just getting a test run in. I am not sure what maps and such can be displayed, so, I apologize in advance that this discussion will have no maps.

The situation appears to be fairly zonal flow at 500 mb, at this time. 500 mb maps are showing undulations within this pattern. 250 mb maps are almost zonal, except for a small ridging over the Midwest. Skipping around to 850 mb, there is plenty of warm air advection to be found across both Alton and DeKalb. There is also a fair amount of moisture at this level. Maps looked at were from http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/

The trouble appears at the surface. Currently an extratropical cyclone is sitting in Eastern Kansas. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting the low to track between the two sites, meaning north of Alton and south of DeKalb. The low is projected to cross over the Northern Illinois region. This will probably give DeKalb a mix of precipitation. Bufkit data from nearby Rockford indicates a deep level of moisture, but the temperature "dances" around the zero degree line.

After looking at MOS guidance, this quick forecast comes down to this:

DeKalb is going to see a high around 38 and a low of 14. It looks to be cloudy, and as typical of DeKalb, windy. Winds will probably be about 10-12 mph, but pick up to about 20-25mph. It is looking like a 70% chance of precipitation, switching from rain, snow, sleet, and some freezing rain. All I have to say is "Yuk!"

Alton will see highs around 47 and lows around 22. There is a 30% chance of rain, which could switch over to snow in the evening. It will also be cloudy in Alton, and should be breezy. Winds will probably pick up from 10-12mph to 18-20mph.