Forecast Verification

Just as important as the forecast is the verification. In the man vs. machine contest, the only way to guage the results is to look at what actually happened.

Alton:
Tuesday Night:
Actual Low: 29

Forecast:
Man: 29
GFS: N/A
NAM: 28

Wednesday:
Actual High: 36

Forecast:
Man: 40
GFS: 46
NAM: 41

Actual Precip Total (for the forecast period): 0.16"

Forecast:
Man: less than 0.25"
GFS: less than 0.1"
NAM: 1.0" or greater


All three (man, GFS, and NAM) were correct on sky cover, as Wednesday was clear.

So, the results lay in the eye of the beholder. It really depends on what each individual believes. I believe I beat the computers. My low was spot on, I was off on my high, and a little high on precip totals. However, I believe my results were closer to the actual readings than the models.

My mistakes are explainable. For my high, I chose a target too far south, but at the time, it was the only area behind the front in sunlight. As for rain, I believed that there would have been heavier rain associated with the band of showers.

Well, that raps up this contest of man vs. machine. Hope you enjoyed it as much as I did!