Well, so far the day 2 forecast is still up for grabs. The high today was reached this morning, and the air temperature has been falling all day. It is time to start the day 3 forecast. This will cover between 7:00pm CST March 9-7:00pm CST March 10 for Alton, IL.
The 500 mb trough has pushed eastward, and as of 7:00 am CST, we were located near the trough axis (middle of the trough). Behind this trough is a ridge, which will bring nicer weather with it. Next, I took a look at the 850 mb layer. The southerly flow we had earlier this week (yes, even yesterday) has been cut off by westerly flow. The southerly flow is now farther to the east. This will cut off our major source of moisture.
The surface map has a few noticeable changes. There is a strong high pressure system north of Maine and another one located north of the Four Corners. The low pressure system that was located in Texas yesterday is now located in Indiana. The cold front actually pushed through Alton earlier today. It actually started in the morning, and pushed out by early afternoon. The next low pressure system is sitting off the Pacific Northwest.
Visible satellite imagery from earlier today showed the cloud shield still sitting over Missouri and Illinois. This will move out with the surface low. There wasn't anything on the St. Louis radar imagery. There has been a very small amount of precipitation this afternoon, but I doubt it was anything measurable. The majority of our rain in the previous forecast period occurred last night.
With very little happening weather-wise (at least for our area), this discussion will be short and sweet. The cold front that pushed through today is going to lower our temperatures for tomorrow. Unfortunately, it should be colder tomorrow than today. I'm forecasting the low to reach 37 tonight. Tomorrow, there will still be cloud cover, and I'm not sure that we'll get all that warm. Temperatures behind this front have all been in the 30s. We should be warmer than that, but not by too much. I'm forecasting tomorrow's high to be in the low 40's, with 41 being my forecast high. It should be mostly cloudy with cloud coverage breaking up throughout the day. We might see partly cloudy skies by tomorrow night. I'm not expecting any precipitation for tomorrow.
Man vs. Machine Day 3 Forecasts:
Man:
Low: 37
High: 41
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, with clouds breaking up throughout the day
Precip: 0.00"
GFS:
Low: 34
High: 45
Weather: Overcast skies, with a 30% chance of precip
Precip: 0.00"
The 500 mb trough has pushed eastward, and as of 7:00 am CST, we were located near the trough axis (middle of the trough). Behind this trough is a ridge, which will bring nicer weather with it. Next, I took a look at the 850 mb layer. The southerly flow we had earlier this week (yes, even yesterday) has been cut off by westerly flow. The southerly flow is now farther to the east. This will cut off our major source of moisture.
The surface map has a few noticeable changes. There is a strong high pressure system north of Maine and another one located north of the Four Corners. The low pressure system that was located in Texas yesterday is now located in Indiana. The cold front actually pushed through Alton earlier today. It actually started in the morning, and pushed out by early afternoon. The next low pressure system is sitting off the Pacific Northwest.
Visible satellite imagery from earlier today showed the cloud shield still sitting over Missouri and Illinois. This will move out with the surface low. There wasn't anything on the St. Louis radar imagery. There has been a very small amount of precipitation this afternoon, but I doubt it was anything measurable. The majority of our rain in the previous forecast period occurred last night.
With very little happening weather-wise (at least for our area), this discussion will be short and sweet. The cold front that pushed through today is going to lower our temperatures for tomorrow. Unfortunately, it should be colder tomorrow than today. I'm forecasting the low to reach 37 tonight. Tomorrow, there will still be cloud cover, and I'm not sure that we'll get all that warm. Temperatures behind this front have all been in the 30s. We should be warmer than that, but not by too much. I'm forecasting tomorrow's high to be in the low 40's, with 41 being my forecast high. It should be mostly cloudy with cloud coverage breaking up throughout the day. We might see partly cloudy skies by tomorrow night. I'm not expecting any precipitation for tomorrow.
Man vs. Machine Day 3 Forecasts:
Man:
Low: 37
High: 41
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, with clouds breaking up throughout the day
Precip: 0.00"
GFS:
Low: 34
High: 45
Weather: Overcast skies, with a 30% chance of precip
Precip: 0.00"
NAM:
Low: 33
High: 44
Weather: Overcast skies, with a 43% chance of precip
Precip: .01-.09" of rain
Once again, time will tell how this chapter in the contest turns out. Tomorrow's forecast discussion will probably come out later than usual (probably the same time as today). I've got to go to class, and then I'll have to analyze the maps, so I may not get the discussion out as quickly. It should be up before 7:00pm CST. That's all for now. Thanks for reading!
As I said in the Day 4 discussion, things went beautifully! However, I will be happy to see the sun tomorrow. Here's the results:
ReplyDelete7:00pm CST-7:00pm CST March 9-March 10
Alton, IL Weather:
Low: 37
High: 39
Weather: Mostly overcast, with a bit of mist/drizzle
Precip: 0.00"
Although there was mist and drizzle, there was no accumulation. The latest infrared satellite imagery shows the majority of the clouds are out of the area. There are just a few remaining.