Well, this is the last forecast in this Man vs. Machine forecast contest. Day 4 was a bust, but it is just a matter of waiting until the forecast period is over to get the actual high. Unofficially, I saw a temp of 58 today, so even though I busted the temp, I'm not complaining. That being said, let's finish this contest off, and I'll try to end it on a good one. The forecast period is 7:00pm CST March 11-7:00pm CST March 12.
As always, let's start out at 500 mb. The large trough is now negatively tilted, and it is mostly impacting New England and then moving out of the United States. Behind that, we have a ridge, and the ridge will be right on top of our location before too much longer. This is typically a sign of nicer weather and warmer temperatures.
At 850 mb, things had to change at the last minute. Since the upper air soundings are taken at 7 am and 7 pm, there is a lot that can happen in the day. That is the main reason I busted temps yesterday. The 7 am map had weak cold air advection over the area, and the 7 pm map had warm air advection. That seriously impacted my temp forecast. At 850 mb now (which is off the 7 am map), the warm air advection continues. This will factor into the possibility of warmer temperatures.
The surface map is active. We have the low that impacted the area still in the United States, over New England. Then there is a low over Minnesota. This low has a cold front that may impact our area late tomorrow night or on Sunday morning. This front will more than likely pass after the forecast period is over. Finally, behind that low, there is yet another low off the Pacific Northwest. The main feature helping our weather is an area of high pressure in Louisiana. Out of all the high pressure areas on the map, this one is the highest at 1026 mb.
On the visible satellite, there were a few clouds over the area, but nothing like the past few days. At most, we were at partly cloudy today, so not too bad at all. The radar is also showing nothing, because no clouds means no precipitation. However, there is an area of clouds out in central Missouri that will probably move in ahead of the front. Looks like we'll see clouds again tomorrow.
Alright, rolling out the temperature correction chart once again for temperature forecasting. This time with warm air advection instead of cold air advection. The clouds are gone, but the winds are still pretty strong. With the nice pressure gradient over us, I don't think that is going to change at all. We've got a dew point around 30, but with warm air advection at 850 mb, I don't think the low will bottom out tonight. I'm forecasting a low of 37 degrees. Tomorrow, we should have some clouds starting to move in, so that may impact temperatures a little bit. 850 mb warm air advection should help keep the temp a bit warmer. With all this in mind, I'm forecasting tomorrow's high to be 62. I really hope this one verifies, and not just to beat the machines. It really would be nice to have temps in the 60s. With clouds moving in, we'll have partly cloudy skies, and no precipitation is expected.
Here goes nothing. Final day of contest forecasts:
Man vs. Machine Day 5 Forecasts:
Man:
Low: 37
High: 62
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Precip: 0.00"
GFS:
Low: 39
High: 58
Weather: Cloudy tonight, clear tomorrow
Precip: 0.00"
NAM:
Low: 39
High: 57
Weather: Partly Cloudy with increasing clouds
Precip: 0.00"
Well, this is it. One last wait to see which will verify. I'll put verification in the comments below. For those who stuck out reading the forecasts, thank you very much. And although I should be as neutral as possible, let's go human forecasting!
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This is the final verification in this contest. It's been fun, but it is time to see the results.
ReplyDelete7pm CST- 7pm CST March 11-March 12
Alton, IL Weather:
Low: 41
High: 59
Weather: Partly Cloudy with clouds increasing
Precip: 0.00"
Once again, I'm not real confident on the high temp. Unofficially, it was 58 just before 11 am. I went to St. Louis today for Gateway Storm Fest, and as I ate lunch the temp was unofficially 66. It was also around 60 while I was out on 255, just outside Alton. There is also a 4 hour gap in Alton/St. Louis Regional Airport's observations, and it occurs between 12:50pm and 4:50pm. There could have been warmer temps in that gap. Just for comparison, Lambert Int'l Airport's high was 65, Scott Air Force Base was 68, and Downtown St. Louis Airport was 64. I have a feeling Alton's actual high was in the 60s, but not recorded in the 4 hour gap.
On another hand, I have to give the NAM credit for nailing the cloud cover today. It was almost to a T.
Well, this wraps up this edition of Man vs. Machine. The real "winner" is really decided by you. It really comes down to your perception of the events. For example, if you think temps aren't that big of a deal, just be in the ballpark, you might not care if there is a 4 degree difference between man and machine. You might just be happy to see mid 60s. Then there are those who will think that accurate forecasting is really in actual weather events rather than high pressure. So, it really comes down to what you think.
If you ask me what I think, even with one bust, I feel I still managed to forecast temps and conditions closer to the actual weather than the models more consistently. My main disclaimer would be that I don't believe the high temps were correct for the last 2 days, as I unofficially saw higher temps at my location in Alton. That ends this contest. It was fun, and I'll more than likely do it again sometime in the future, but probably not for a while. I'd like to leave you with this video. Even one of the most advanced supercomputers can err.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7h4baBEi0iA
Thanks for reading. I hope you had as much fun and interest as I did. Sorry for the long comment section.